 &MODEL
 NLIST   =           1,
 NSTEP   =        2000,
 EPSI    =  1.0000000E-07,
 WGHT    =   1.000000    ,
 NOBS    =         120,
 NVAXZ   =           9,
 NVAX    =           4,
 NORDER  =           2,
 NVAZ    =           0,
 NLAMZ   =           0,
 NLAMY   =           1,
 NLAMX   =           3,
 NSCALE  =           1,
 NEXPY   =           0,
 NRES    =           0,
 NCOR    =           0,
 NCOV    =           0,
 VARNAME = BC4+A1A2P,
 NVARIANT        =           2
 /
 &AUTOCOR
 RHO     = 2*0.000000000000000E+000  ,
 PI      = 2*0.990000000000000       ,
 NTPI    = 2*1,
 MATFILE = R1.in                                                                           R2.in                                     
                                       
 /
 &YBOXCOX
 VLY     =  0.000000000000000E+000,
 NTLY    =           1,
 NUMLXY  =           0
 /
 &XBOXCOX
 NUMX    =           1,           2,           3,           5, 46*0,
 NUMLX   = 2*1,           2,           3, 46*0,
 VLX     = 10*0.000000000000000E+000  ,
 NTLX    = 3*1, 7*0
 /
 &YXZDATA
 YXZFILE = CanadaNew.in                                                                    ,
 YXZFMT  = (5e15.5)                                                                        
 /

VARIABLE       MINIMUM         MEAN          MAXIMUM   NULL OBS.      SCALE
DEPENDENT
TOTFLOW     0.2577000D+04  0.1476588D+06  0.2736000D+07     0     0.1000000D-05
INDEPENDENT
POP         0.8591300D+05  0.5297039D+06  0.2802800D+07     0     0.1000000D-05
REVE        0.3698300D+04  0.4258776D+04  0.4808200D+04     0     0.1000000D-02
LANGFR      0.5600000D+01  0.7329333D+02  0.9990000D+02     0     0.1000000D+00
UTIL2       0.7955800D+00  0.1635877D+01  0.5093100D+01     0     0.1000000D+01
CONSTANT    0.1000000D+01  0.1000000D+01  0.1000000D+01     0     0.1000000D+01


MRS of X(l) with respect to X(k) - at the sample means
===================================================================================================================================
        X(k) POP         REVE        LANGFR      UTIL2       CONSTANT  
X(l)
===================================================================================================================================

POP          0.1000D+01  0.3323D+03  0.4924D+04 -0.5818D+06 -0.2921D+07

REVE         0.3009D-02  0.1000D+01  0.1482D+02 -0.1751D+04 -0.8788D+04

LANGFR       0.2031D-03  0.6750D-01  0.1000D+01 -0.1182D+03 -0.5932D+03

UTIL2       -0.1719D-05 -0.5712D-03 -0.8463D-02  0.1000D+01  0.5020D+01

CONSTANT    -0.3424D-06 -0.1138D-03 -0.1686D-02  0.1992D+00  0.1000D+01


INITIAL ESTIMATES

             LAM    PARAMETER      STD-ERROR        STUDENT-T    GRADIENT       DERIV.Y         ELAST.Y
                                                                                DERIV.E(Y)      ELAST.E(Y)


POP           X1  0.1646401D+01  0.1786190D+00      9.2173920 -0.5781703D-10  0.4589463D+00      1.6464012
                                                                              0.4370285D+00      1.6464012

REVE          X1  0.4398936D+01  0.2135662D+01      2.0597524  0.9695515D-10  0.1525184D+03      4.3989359
                                                                              0.1410086D+00      4.3989359

LANGFR        X2  0.1121630D+01  0.1792008D+00      6.2590689  0.1222484D-09  0.2259668D+04      1.1216304
                                                                              0.2776679D-01      1.1216304

UTIL2         X3 -0.2958034D+01  0.2988151D+00     -9.8992102  0.2623157D-10 -0.2670004D+06     -2.9580336
                                                                             -0.3355854D+00     -2.9580336

CONSTANT      X0 -0.9077466D+01  0.3020994D+01     -3.0047941  0.6651416D-10 -0.1340368D+07     -9.0774656
                                                                             -0.1252771D+01     -9.0774656

VAR(W)            0.1150794D+01  0.1485669D+00      7.7459667  0.0000000D+00

INITIAL VALUES
 
RHO1           0.0000000D+00
RHO2           0.0000000D+00
PI1            0.9900000D+00
PI2            0.9900000D+00
 
LAM(Y)         0.0000000D+00
LAM(X1)        0.0000000D+00
LAM(X2)        0.0000000D+00
LAM(X3)        0.0000000D+00


LOG-LIKELIHOOD =  0.2093520D+03

NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS              =            120

PEARSON-R2(E) (unadjusted)          =         0.7214
PEARSON-R2(E) (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.7117

PSEUDO-R2(L)  (unadjusted)          =         0.5098
PSEUDO-R2(L)  (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.4928

PROBABILITY of Y to be at the limit =         0.0000
MEAN VALUE of E(Y)                  =  0.1380089D+00

MEAN of residual W                  =  0.6379008D-12
VARIANCE of residual W              =  0.1150794D+01
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL for residual W
Lower Bound = -0.2102591D+01   Upper Bound =  0.2102591D+01




initialization cards for control routine follow - -  id card - no. parameters , no. steps , step size 
minimization tolerance - starting values of parameters - relative uncertainties of parameters (error estimates) -  
and starting direction  (relative parameter increments for 1st step)
identification line
         8      2000   0.1E+01   0.1E-06
  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.45951E+01  0.45951E+01  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00
  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01
  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00

first entry to fcn , parameters of current step follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2093519602D+03  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.45951D+01  0.45951D+01  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    10  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2638841920D+03  0.49561D+00  0.53562D+00  0.45951D+01  0.45951D+01 -0.11286D-01  0.24053D+00 -0.10850D-02 -0.14516D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    14  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2676790735D+03  0.73144D+00  0.44998D+00  0.45960D+01  0.45956D+01 -0.56172D-01  0.37108D+00 -0.21434D-01 -0.17118D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    17  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2681514497D+03  0.76834D+00  0.43415D+00  0.45962D+01  0.45957D+01 -0.28840D-01  0.38573D+00 -0.25156D-01 -0.17756D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    20  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2683477614D+03  0.76851D+00  0.42293D+00  0.45964D+01  0.45958D+01 -0.18815D-01  0.40547D+00 -0.24807D-01 -0.21061D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    24  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2689326700D+03  0.82574D+00  0.37679D+00  0.45983D+01  0.45966D+01 -0.20641D-01  0.32225D+00 -0.26638D-01 -0.36445D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    27  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2689684695D+03  0.82568D+00  0.37746D+00  0.46119D+01  0.46039D+01 -0.23444D-01  0.32004D+00 -0.11520D+00 -0.35960D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    30  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2690502523D+03  0.85290D+00  0.36143D+00  0.47104D+01  0.46575D+01 -0.32853D-01  0.32672D+00 -0.88414D-01 -0.25007D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    33  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2691157198D+03  0.85401D+00  0.36583D+00  0.49223D+01  0.47809D+01 -0.32548D-01  0.31266D+00 -0.93072D-01  0.36538D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    36  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2691867304D+03  0.86174D+00  0.35748D+00  0.52380D+01  0.49725D+01 -0.28861D-01  0.30947D+00 -0.10917D+00  0.38809D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    38  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2692029110D+03  0.84499D+00  0.36681D+00  0.53468D+01  0.50481D+01 -0.28897D-01  0.31305D+00 -0.10536D+00  0.44646D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    41  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2692167511D+03  0.84672D+00  0.36599D+00  0.58620D+01  0.54172D+01 -0.30787D-01  0.30233D+00 -0.11244D+00  0.54841D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    45  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2692557333D+03  0.84612D+00  0.36640D+00  0.71342D+01  0.63895D+01 -0.27198D-01  0.31646D+00 -0.99385D-01  0.32461D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    48  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2692653294D+03  0.84828D+00  0.36491D+00  0.79613D+01  0.70061D+01 -0.31027D-01  0.31125D+00 -0.10773D+00  0.36311D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    51  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2692701443D+03  0.84669D+00  0.36578D+00  0.91801D+01  0.79235D+01 -0.28564D-01  0.31048D+00 -0.10547D+00  0.36037D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    53  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2692719408D+03  0.84772D+00  0.36541D+00  0.10037D+02  0.85684D+01 -0.29718D-01  0.31337D+00 -0.10473D+00  0.36677D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    56  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2692727884D+03  0.84731D+00  0.36543D+00  0.11285D+02  0.95091D+01 -0.29693D-01  0.31067D+00 -0.10603D+00  0.35965D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    58  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2692731214D+03  0.84746D+00  0.36550D+00  0.12267D+02  0.10249D+02 -0.29423D-01  0.31259D+00 -0.10529D+00  0.36381D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    61  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2692732694D+03  0.84742D+00  0.36543D+00  0.13680D+02  0.11314D+02 -0.29666D-01  0.31155D+00 -0.10517D+00  0.36299D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    63  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2692733180D+03  0.84743D+00  0.36548D+00  0.14654D+02  0.12048D+02 -0.29490D-01  0.31216D+00 -0.10566D+00  0.36278D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    66  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2692733406D+03  0.84744D+00  0.36545D+00  0.16150D+02  0.13175D+02 -0.29587D-01  0.31188D+00 -0.10498D+00  0.36316D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    68  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2692733477D+03  0.84743D+00  0.36548D+00  0.17101D+02  0.13891D+02 -0.29534D-01  0.31200D+00 -0.10565D+00  0.36287D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    70  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2692733511D+03  0.84744D+00  0.36545D+00  0.18693D+02  0.15091D+02 -0.29550D-01  0.31199D+00 -0.10509D+00  0.36299D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    72  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2692733521D+03  0.84743D+00  0.36547D+00  0.19405D+02  0.15628D+02 -0.29548D-01  0.31197D+00 -0.10550D+00  0.36295D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    75  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2692733527D+03  0.84744D+00  0.36546D+00  0.21419D+02  0.17145D+02 -0.29543D-01  0.31200D+00 -0.10527D+00  0.36294D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    77  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2692733528D+03  0.84743D+00  0.36547D+00  0.22091D+02  0.17651D+02 -0.29548D-01  0.31197D+00 -0.10542D+00  0.36296D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    80  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2692733529D+03  0.84743D+00  0.36546D+00  0.24283D+02  0.19303D+02 -0.29545D-01  0.31199D+00 -0.10535D+00  0.36294D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    82  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2692733529D+03  0.84743D+00  0.36547D+00  0.24942D+02  0.19800D+02 -0.29547D-01  0.31198D+00 -0.10540D+00  0.36296D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    83  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2692733529D+03  0.84743D+00  0.36546D+00  0.25750D+02  0.20409D+02 -0.29547D-01  0.31198D+00 -0.10539D+00  0.36295D+00



the function (fcn) has not improved by    0.10000D-06 after 3 steps which include a minimum - - -


therefore the run has been terminated
  -0.2692733529D+03  0.84743D+00  0.36546D+00  0.25750D+02  0.20409D+02 -0.29547D-01  0.31198D+00 -0.10539D+00  0.36295D+00



all numbers of last entry refer to final pt. of run


the lowest value of the function (fcn) was  -0.2692733529D+03 for entry   83 - - x(i) follows
  0.84743E+00  0.36546E+00  0.25750E+02  0.20409E+02 -0.29547E-01  0.31198E+00 -0.10539E+00  0.36295E+00



run statistics follow - -

 nfcn=   83 nst=   28


MRS of X(l) with respect to X(k) - at the sample means
===================================================================================================================================
        X(k) POP         REVE        LANGFR      UTIL2       CONSTANT  
X(l)
===================================================================================================================================

POP          0.1000D+01  0.1155D+03  0.2818D+04  0.8089D+05  0.6763D+05

REVE         0.8654D-02  0.1000D+01  0.2439D+02  0.7000D+03  0.5853D+03

LANGFR       0.3548D-03  0.4100D-01  0.1000D+01  0.2870D+02  0.2400D+02

UTIL2        0.1236D-04  0.1429D-02  0.3484D-01  0.1000D+01  0.8361D+00

CONSTANT     0.1479D-04  0.1709D-02  0.4167D-01  0.1196D+01  0.1000D+01


FINAL ESTIMATES

             LAM    PARAMETER      STD-ERROR        STUDENT-T      STUDENT-T    GRADIENT       DERIV.Y         ELAST.Y
                                   (CONDIT.)        (CONDIT.)      (CONDIT.)                   DERIV.E(Y)      ELAST.E(Y)
                                                    (PAR = 0)      (PAR = 1)

POP           X1  0.1653833D-01  0.2702972D-01      0.6118573                -0.2523257D-07  0.4001543D+00      1.4354937
                                 0.1260614D-02     13.1192670                                0.3775645D+00      1.3231179

REVE          X1  0.6918711D-01  0.1189384D+00      0.5817054                -0.5890960D-08  0.4623740D+02      1.3335791
                                 0.8305929D-01      0.8329846                                0.4948026D+02      1.2936619

LANGFR        X2  0.6192456D+00  0.1984701D+01      0.3120095                -0.5184283D-09  0.1127792D+04      0.5598017
                                 0.2714474D+00      2.2812727                                0.1830868D+04      0.5536701

UTIL2         X3  0.2110008D+00  0.4283918D+00      0.4925416                -0.1286203D-09  0.3236757D+05      0.3585927
                                 0.1426382D+00      1.4792729                                0.4216230D+05      0.3380056

CONSTANT      X0  0.1289358D+00  0.5981736D+01      0.0215549                -0.1463671D-09  0.2706253D+05      0.1832775
                                 0.3292636D+01      0.0391588                                0.2922379D+05      0.1778394

VAR(W)            0.1552120D+00  0.1415690D+00      1.0963701                 0.0000000D+00
                                 0.2516997D-01      6.1665543
 
RHO1      (E)     0.6897248D+00  0.1101470D+00      6.2618576                -0.9608160D-04
                                 0.9907755D-01      6.9614641
RHO2      (E)     0.3500185D+00  0.1046560D+00      3.3444652                -0.9494113D-04
                                 0.9683677D-01      3.6145206
PI1       (E)     0.1000000D+01  0.4825366D+00      2.0723815      0.0000000  0.8075348D+01
                                 0.4683882D+00      2.1349812      0.0000000
PI2       (E)     0.1000000D+01  0.6905395D+00      1.4481431      0.0000000  0.4716507D+01
                                 0.6402083D+00      1.5619916      0.0000000
 
LAM(Y)    (E)    -0.2954690D-01  0.4218157D-01     -0.7004694    -24.4075049  0.2599367D-04
LAM(X1)   (E)     0.3119783D+00  0.1311121D+00      2.3794770     -5.2475833  0.2980634D-04
LAM(X2)   (E)    -0.1053928D+00  0.8737676D+00     -0.1206188     -1.2650879  0.1726919D-04
LAM(X3)   (E)     0.3629543D+00  0.2403998D+01      0.1509795     -0.2649943  0.4765076D-06


LOG-LIKELIHOOD = -0.1388588D+04

NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS              =            120

PEARSON-R2(E) (unadjusted)          =         0.6547
PEARSON-R2(E) (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.6159

PSEUDO-R2(L)  (unadjusted)          =         0.9745
PSEUDO-R2(L)  (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.9717

PROBABILITY of Y to be at the limit =         0.0011
MEAN VALUE of E(Y)                  =  0.1599540D+06

MEAN of residual W                  = -0.4952533D-01
VARIANCE of residual W              =  0.1552120D+00
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL for residual W
Lower Bound = -0.8217057D+00   Upper Bound =  0.7226550D+00


CPU TIME:      4.86 sec
